Market Outlook – September 2024

If a Manager asks a recruiter how they are feeling about the market in week 1 of September then 9 times out of 10 you’ll get a “let’s not get carried away but I’m cautiously optimistic”.

So guess what my view of the next 4 – 6 months is….

You got me — I’m cautiously optimistic… obviously.

But genuinely, that’s how I would describe things based on how people are feeling.

The mid-market in accountancy and finance (£40,000 – £70,000 ish) has been solid for 3 years on the bounce now.   Almost an unwavering flow of interesting and varied roles.  The candidate pool has been slightly less shallow in 2024 than the 2 preceding years but in the main there has been lots going on.

Across management accounting, financial accounting and reporting, FP&A, financial management and business partnering there has been relentless demand & movement in pretty much every sector and within privately held, PE backed and PLC settings.

With the exception of a few trading areas which had a particular hammering (hospitality / leisure, tech for a while, some parts of retail etc) in the main it’s been business as usual.

At a more senior level, however, (Group FC / Head of Finance / FD / CFO) there has been significantly more caution.

In general, it’s a demographic of folk who are more likely to consider macro factors when it comes to both hiring decisions and their own career moves.

So, with economic and political balls having been up in the air post-covid lots had taken to the decision to maintain a holding pattern and sit tight.  

That has definitely created a bit more stickiness in that market. 

We’ve also seen PE houses take a very subdued approach in the last 18 months or so (after a period of unprecedented appetite to spend and invest in 2022).  This impacts vacancy numbers (PE involvement is a typical trigger for an FD hire).  

Behind that some of the SMEs that have reached the threshold for an FD (somewhere between maybe £5m and £10m turnover for example) have chugged along with what they have rather than taking the plunge and budgeting for their first FD/CFO.

So where are we now?

Well, most people are recharged after the break, kids are back and the brakes tend to loosen on the market each September. 

Often businesses in ‘normal years’ use Q4 to plug any gaps in their finance team and to get key hires lined up for the clean edge of Jan.

Lots also have year end considerations which is another trigger for both interim and perm hires in finance.  So, in the main our market is usually pretty buoyant in the last 3-4 months.

Most of the business owners, investors and FDs I speak to seem to have a reasonably positive and upbeat outlook.   Like it or hate it we know which political party we have for the next 4 years or so.  We have better visibility of interest and inflation rates and cost of living is seemingly starting to settle. 

Access to affordable finance seems more available and VCs/PE’s look poised for a big 12 months.

I can’t see anything impacting that normal cycle this year.

If anything, at some point the coiled spring at a senior level will need to pop – but predicting when that will be is hard… my guess is that we won’t see a real floodgate moment but that more FD / CFO vacancies will steadily tumble onto the market over the next 12 months.

Unless we experience something extreme to contract the market (having now seen a pandemic, war in Europe and a recession in my lifetime it seems nothing can be written off!!!).

So the magic 8 ball says “the mid market continues to be solid, the senior market will start to gather pace at some stage”.

It’ll be an interesting end to 2024 that’s for sure (where has this year gone???!?!?!?!)

Thanks for reading, if you have recruitment needs in finance you know where we are.

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